us cyber issues

The U.S. intelligence community is working with governments across Europe to ensure they don’t fall victim to the same digital meddling campaign that rattled the American presidential election.

Intelligence agencies have shared with several foreign governments the classified version of their deep-dive report on what they believe was a Russian plot to undermine Hillary Clinton and tilt the election toward Donald Trump, according to a senior intelligence official and intelligence-oriented lawmakers.

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Such an exchange is vital, insist key U.S. lawmakers who warn Russia is turning its U.S. playbook — hack political enemies, leak salacious information — against Europe in an attempt to remake the international order to its liking.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is “trying to break the competence in democracies” around the globe, said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who ran for president as a vocal Moscow critic.

Kremlin officials want to “undermine the perceived validity of the democratic model and try to suggest an authoritarian model is equally valid,” said Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.), Clinton’s running mate in the 2016 election. “They’re trying to undermine specifically western democracies and institutions like NATO that they view as a daily threat to them.”
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And 2017 will give Moscow plenty of chances. Germany, France, Norway and the Netherlands — all key U.S. allies in international bodies like the United Nations and NATO — are slated to hold elections this year. Each country has already publicly voiced fears that Russia’s digital menace is descending on their elections.

Russian specialists say the country’s goal is to erode the public's confidence in their democratic systems and preemptively undermine the winners of elections. If the discontent Moscow sows helps sway races to leaders more sympathetic to the Kremlin’s agenda, all the better.

“It’s widely understood” that Moscow wants to expand “Russian political influence in Europe, that they want to prop up populists,” a senior intelligence official told POLITICO. “Their goal is still to do what they can to weaken NATO, the NATO alliance and strengthen their own influence.”

NATO, a military and political alliance of 28 countries, is seen as a counter-balance to Moscow’s expansionist ambitions in Eastern Europe countries, many of which are coalition members. In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea, a portion of Ukraine. And Russia critics fear Putin would keep going if given the chance.

But NATO is also under attack from a new wave of populist, nationalist leaders like Trump, who are increasingly suspicious of international bodies.
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During his campaign, Trump criticized the coalition as “obsolete” and suggested the U.S. may not automatically defend NATO allies if they had not “fulfilled their obligations to us.” Over in Europe, French far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen has vowed to remove her country from the alliance if elected, and Germany’s Alternative for Germany party contemplated similar language for a party platform adopted ahead of this year’s elections.

This has put leaders like German Chancellor Angela Merkel in the Kremlin’s cross-hairs. Merkel — who is seeking a fourth term this year — has increasingly become a target of Moscow disinformation campaigns due to her vocal support for sanctions against Russia and her policy toward refugees, according the European Union’s East StratCom Task Force, created in 2015 to combat Russian disinformation.

“They’re headed to Germany, for sure,” said Graham, who is helming one of several congressional investigations into Russia’s U.S. election-year tampering.

Russia “would like to undercut Merkel,” he added. “And they’re headed to France. They’re trying to destabilize the European Union and NATO.”

According to these governments, the Russian hacks have already started.

In September, German government security experts said high-ranking politicians received suspicious emails that may have come from Russia. Two months later, the German intelligence chief, Bruno Kahl, warned that there was evidence of Russian cyberattacks “with no other motive than to cause political uncertainty.”
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Experiencing similar threats, the Netherlands recently announced that all votes cast in its national election next month will be counted manually to ensure the outcome’s validity.

Meanwhile, the Norwegian security service disclosed last week that nine personal civil servant email accounts had been targeted by hackers in "spear-phishing" attacks believed to be connected to Russian intelligence.

U.S. intelligence agencies and lawmakers are doing what they can to help head off these destabilization efforts.

There has been “appropriate liaison exchanges between intelligence agencies regarding this matter,” said the senior intelligence official.

“We’ve shared everything possible with our foreign partners that might help them with their elections,” Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Richard Burr (R-N.C.) told POLITICO.

Burr’s committee has taken point in investigating how Moscow pulled off the suspected cyber assault on the U.S. election, and is also examining whether the Kremlin directly communicated with Trump’s campaign.

Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia, the committee's top Democrat, confirmed that the classified version of the intelligence community’s report on Russian election meddling “has been shared and the level of sharing depends upon the nature of the ally.”

The U.S. has no single, blanket pact when it comes to sharing secret intelligence. Instead, it relies on a phalanx of bilateral agreements with countries throughout Europe and around the world.

Washington has a more direct information-sharing history with some nations, such as the members of the “Five Eyes” — a decades-old intelligence alliance comprising the U.S., Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom — than others, including Germany and France.
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But even less-structured intelligence relationships become more formalized on a case-by-case basis if U.S. officials believe they have information that would prove vital to another country.

“Our intelligence agencies have direct relationships with European services, so it can take a variety of forms,” House Intelligence Committee ranking member Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) told POLITICO. “Some through more formal channels, but often just through individual relationships on the ground in Europe.”

Still, it is unknown how much classified U.S. information on Russian hacking these European countries can access.

Warner argued that European outreach must extend to a “broader group beyond the intel community” and include direct talks among political leaders to combat the “organized, multifaceted Russian” efforts to hack, covertly gather intelligence and spread disinformation.

Senate Armed Services Chairman John McCain (R-Ariz.), who has repeatedly clashed with Trump on foreign policy issues, suggested the U.S. could directly help its allies better protect their networks.

“I think we can help them erect some defenses,” said McCain, whose panel is also digging into Russia’s election-year tampering. “We have certain cyber capabilities that maybe they don’t have.”

“If they need help in trying to counter [Russian hackers], we should try to help them,” he added.

Many lawmakers said the Trump administration must lead these efforts, though. Congress has limited expertise and almost no tactical background in these matters.
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Such a prospect is concerning to Democrats and hawkish Republicans who worry about the warm stance Trump has taken toward Putin and Russia. Trump also dragged his feet for months before accepting the intelligence community’s conclusion that Moscow orchestrated the election-year hacking.

“How is the administration going to deploy our resources — State Department, [Homeland Security Department] and others — to assist [Europe]?” asked Kaine, who sits on both the Armed Services and Foreign Relations committees. “What I don’t know is what the administration’s plan is.”

Kaine wants Congress to call in key Trump administration officials and press them to detail a plan.

Ultimately, though, U.S. assistance can only go so far, cautioned several of Trump’s closer Republican allies on Capitol Hill. European countries must wake up to the threat, they said.

“There’s not a great deal more that can happen,” said Senate Foreign Relations Chairman Bob Corker (R-Tenn.), who was on Trump’s short list for secretary of state.

House Intelligence Chairman Devin Nunes (R-Calif.), who served on the executive committee of Trump's transition, downplayed fears that Russian hackers could actually alter vote tallies. Despite the successful hacks of mostly Democratic targets during the U.S. election, officials have said there is no evidence cyber meddlers tampered with the vote itself.

“I find it hard to believe they could digitally tamper with the results. It’s possible, but I think it’s highly unlikely,” Nunes told POLITICO.

“It’s all just knowledge,” he added. “Most of this is all unclassified, it’s all well-known, well-documented. I just think people have been asleep at the switch for a long time.”